The International Energy Agency releases World Energy Outlook 2018
- Achieving emission reduction targets requires a more flexible power system
[China Petroleum News Center 2019-02-13]
On January 23, the IEA (International Energy Agency) and the General Electric Power Planning and Design Institute held a China conference on "World Energy Outlook 2018" (hereinafter referred to as "Outlook") in Beijing. Based on the analysis of the latest data on global energy market and technology development and the fundamental development of the energy industry, Outlook looks forward to the current energy development prospects of the world by 2040, focusing on the opportunities and challenges brought about by the further improvement of the electrification level. A roadmap for energy system transformation under different power development scenarios was developed.
The power sector will become the first focus of carbon emission reduction in the energy industry
"The global energy industry's carbon dioxide emissions have shown an upward trend in the past two years, mainly related to the economic recovery in the same period and the further increase in fuel consumption in the transportation sector. We believe that the consumption of transportation oil will not peak in the near future, and at the same time, with renewable energy The continuous advancement of technology, the increasing popularity of digital applications in the energy industry, and the growing importance of power, the future of the power sector will become the first focus of carbon emissions reduction in the energy industry." At the "Outlook" conference, IEA chief energy model official Ms. La Cozi said.
Electricity is a special area of concern for the IEA's Outlook. Laura Cozzy said that for economies that are more dependent on light industry, services and digital technologies, electricity is increasingly becoming the preferred "fuel." By 2040, nearly half of the world's cars will be electric cars, and the share of electricity in final energy consumption will increase to nearly one-third.
[Currently, the demand for electricity in developed economies is growing moderately, and the rising demand for electricity in developing economies has made cleaner, affordable and affordable electricity the core of economic development and emission reduction strategies. Wind power and photovoltaic power generation are still The next step in power development." Laura Cozzi believes that although electrification can improve urban air quality, if it is necessary to fully release potential and achieve climate targets, further measures are needed to achieve low carbonization of electricity supply, otherwise CO2 emissions will only occur. The risk of moving from the terminal sector upstream to the power generation segment.
Laura Cozzi further pointed out: "By analyzing the power installation structure of different countries, we found that by 2040, renewable energy power generation needs to reach 80% to 85% to achieve carbon emission reduction targets. It can be seen that electrification is in The potential for carbon reduction."
The report shows that with the increasing competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation, its installed capacity will exceed wind power by 2025, surpassing hydropower by 2030, and surpassing coal power by 2040. Renewable energy generation will increase from the current 25% to around 40%. China's nuclear power generation will surpass the United States and the European Union by 2030.
The rise of photovoltaic power and wind power makes the flexibility of power systems unprecedented
"Outlook" emphasizes that the rise of photovoltaic power generation and wind power makes the flexibility of power systems unprecedented. [Next, countries need to make great efforts to increase the flexibility of the power system, which will be related to global energy transformation and power security supply," Laura Cozzi said.
According to Outlook, traditional power plants are still the main force to maintain system flexibility, and new grid interconnection, storage and demand side response technologies support. With the rapid decline in battery storage costs, the competition between battery and gas peaking power plants in response to short-term supply and demand fluctuations will become increasingly fierce. The EU's efforts to build an "energy alliance" show that regional integration can help promote renewable energy consumption.
Zhang Yunzhou, dean of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, said that from a global perspective, as the energy demand of the member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is gradually saturated, the growth of energy and electricity demand in the future will mainly come from emerging economies. The current renewable energy development momentum is strong, and the energy path selection of emerging economies is more diversified, which has become the leading force in global energy transformation.
At present, the rapid growth of energy demand poses a serious challenge to the energy transition of emerging economies. The reason is that emerging economies must deal with both the demand stock and the demand increase in the transformation of energy consumption structure. In this context, energy technology innovation is considered to be an important starting point for emerging economies to solve the energy transition dilemma.
Zhang Yunzhou believes that emerging economies should explore diversified energy development paths, accelerate the development and innovation of wind power, photovoltaic power generation, nuclear power and energy storage technologies, analyze and judge the cost of technology application, and embark on a stage of development and resource endowment. A consistent path to energy transformation.
In addition, although the global population of non-electricity fell below 1 billion for the first time in 2017, the Outlook expects that more than 700 million people will not be able to use electricity by 2040. These populations are mainly located in rural settlements in sub-Saharan Africa.
In terms of oil and gas, "Outlook" believes that car oil consumption will peak in the next five years or so. However, the petrochemical, truck, aircraft and shipbuilding industries continue to put oil demand on the rise. By 2025, the United States will account for more than half of the global oil and gas production growth. Nearly one-fifth of the world's oil and one-quarter of natural gas are produced in the United States. The shale revolution will put tremendous pressure on traditional oil and gas exporting countries.
The Outlook predicts that natural gas will surpass coal as the second largest fuel in the global energy mix. Global gas use will increase by 45% in 2030.
Achieving global carbon reduction targets requires coordinated operations in the energy industry
[Global energy-related CO2 emissions have risen by 1.6% in 2017 after three consecutive years of flattening, and data from the beginning of this year show that emissions will continue to grow in 2018, which is far from the development trajectory needed to achieve climate change targets. Far away. Energy-related air pollution still causes millions of people to die prematurely every year," Laura Cozi said.
The Outlook predicts that energy-related carbon emissions will rise slowly from now until 2040, far from the pace of reductions required by the scientific community to address climate change. In order to achieve global carbon reduction targets, in addition to electricity, synergies with other energy industries are also needed.
According to Outlook, it is more difficult to reduce carbon emissions in the transportation and industrial sectors than in the power sector. The IEA's current focus on carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology, as well as continuous innovation in other low-carbon technologies in the industry, will make an important contribution to the low-carbon transition of the global energy industry.
From the perspective of transportation, current passenger cars account for about 20% of oil consumption. As the world's countries reduce the emission reduction requirements for passenger cars, the energy efficiency of traditional fuel vehicles will continue to increase. Currently, there are about 70% of the world's fuel. Passenger vehicles have popularized energy efficiency labels. In addition to the further development of electric vehicles. "Outlook" predicts that the number of passenger cars will double in the future, but the consumption of oil in the passenger car sector peaked in the mid-1920s and remained in balance.
In the past two years, air pollution control measures have made China's natural gas consumption growth much higher than expected. In 2018, China surpassed Japan to become the world's largest natural gas importer. The Outlook believes that the rising demand from China-led developing economies will support the continued expansion of global natural gas consumption.
Laura Cozi believes that natural gas is not a zero-carbon energy source after all, and its carbon emissions mainly come from the combustion process and the methane leakage of natural gas during the mining process. In particular, effective control of the latter will contribute significantly to carbon reduction. Currently, the IEA has taken the lead in developing a guideline to promote natural gas producers to reduce the leakage of methane (the main component of natural gas) through the optimization of natural gas production processes and operations. In addition, the combination of natural gas with hydrogen or biomethane will also be an important development direction for low carbon natural gas.
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